Jake vs Phil CFB Conference Championships
- NAF
- Dec 6, 2019
- 9 min read
With one of the best weekends of the year coming up, Phil and I decided to have a little competition with the 10 games this weekend. We’re each going to do our own write-up on the games, make our betting predictions, and see who comes out on top.
Jake’s Picks:
PAC-12 Championship
What’s so great about this weekend, in my humble opinion, is that it’s essentially a playoff-type game for a lot of these teams. Assuming Georgia loses to LSU, Utah should get in the CFB Playoff with a win, but a loss will end their championship hopes (not sure they should have too many of those anyway). Utah comes in to this game as one of the most dominating teams in the second half of the season. Since their loss to USC they’ve outscored their opponents 308-76, that’s pretty fucking impressive. The Utes’ defense is legit, and their offense can attack you on the ground with Zach Moss (averaging 6.2 YPC with 15 Touchdowns) or through the passing game. The Ducks will go as far as Justin Herbert will take them, as seen in the loss to ASU when he threw a couple costly interceptions. The last elite defense Oregon has played was all the back in week 1 against Auburn, and although they lost, they kept it close. With that being said, I think Utah’s defense should do just enough to help cover in this game by creating pressure on Herbert and forcing a few more turnovers.
Pick: Utah -7
Big 12 Championship
Although this game was close the first time, it shouldn’t have been. If you are one of the top teams in the country as Baylor is, you need to close out a 28-3 game. I think Oklahoma is obviously the better team, and with the large spread I guess Vegas agrees. What’s scary to me about this game is that both teams have everything in front of them. Either team would potentially have a shot to sneak in, especially if Utah loses. Both teams can put up points as most Big 12 teams do, but their defenses aren’t the worst in the country? While I think this will be a shootout (and even though Phil and I are only competing with bets against the spread, I’ll still take the over at 64), I just have a hard time betting against Jalen Hurts in one of the biggest games of his lifetime. Yeah he had his rough patches at Bama but the guy is a fucking winner. With him running the offense, and the couple defensive playmakers the Sooners have, I think Oklahoma will win, HOWEVER, they will not cover at AT&T Stadium. Nine points is just too much for me to not stay on the Matt Rhule hype-train.
Pick: Baylor +9
Sun Belt Championship
University of Louisiana vs #21 Appalachian St (-6.5)
These two teams played each other earlier this season in a 17-7 game won by App St. That game was in Lafayette, and I don’t see this round going a whole lot better for the Ragin’ Cajuns’ in Boone, North Carolina. This is a Mountaineer team that has knocked off two Power 5 teams (UNC and South Carolina), and they also have to have a win to have any slim chance at making the Cotton Bowl. I think they will not only win the game, but they should win it fairly easily. I’d also like the over in this game at 56.5.
Pick: App St -6.5
MAC Championship
Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan University (-6.5)
Miami has surprised a lot of people in the MAC world by getting in to the conference championship. They’ve won a lot of tight games, with just three of their seven wins coming by more than a touchdown (not to mention one of those wins was against an FCS opponent). They’ve also given up 40 points or more in two of their last three games, while the Chippewas have scored 38 or more in six of their last seven games. The CMU offense should find success in their balanced offense against a Redhawk defense that is equally bad against the run and pass. Chippewas will win this one by a lot, and Jim McElwain can hopefully realize he’s only meant to coach Group of 5 teams after his failure at Florida.
Pick: CMU -6.5
Conference USA Championship
UAB vs FAU (-8.5)
To be completely honest I’m not sure why this spread is what it is (although to be fair I have no idea how they make the spread). FAU’s strength is their passing game, and UAB has the 7th best pass defense in the Nation. UAB has the 15th best scoring defense in the country, and FAU comes in closer to 30th. I should note that I’m sort of a fan of UAB after their program got taken away and then reinstated a few years ago, but I think they can keep this game close just because of how good their defense is.
Pick: UAB +8.5
AAC Championship
An exact rematch of the game from a week ago, I don’t think this game will turn out a whole lot different. Assuming Cincy sticks with their backup quarterback, he at least will have had one more week with the starters in practice. I think this game will be a shootout, but with Memphis coming into this game averaging over 40 points a game, and after just beating the Bearcats by 10 last week, I’m going to stick with Memphis here as they’ll lock in their Cotton bowl bid. Again, I like the over (58) in this one too.
Pick: Memphis -9
SEC Championship
This game is going to ultimately decide two spots. If LSU wins, then Utah gets in with a win or the winner of the Big 12 gets in with a Utah loss tonight. If Georgia wins, they, along with LSU and presumably Ohio State and Clemson, will be the top 4 (at least that’s what I predict). I’m thinking the former of those two will happen. LSU has clearly been one of the top teams in the country all year long. Coach O has done a helluva job with the Tigers, and Joe Burrow has a legit chance to be the top overall draft pick, especially after the injury to Tua. The Tigers have averaged almost 50 points a game this year, and their defense is respectable. On the other side, Georgia is putting up just over 30 points a game but only giving up 10. In this game I’m counting on Georgia to grind out the clock on the ground, and their defense to slow down LSU’s offense just enough to keep this one close, similar to the LSU-Auburn game that ended in a 23-20 victory for LSU.
Pick: Georgia +7
Mountain West Championship
Hawaii vs #21 Boise St (-13.5)
When these two teams played in Boise it was a 59-37 blowout for the Broncos. With this game being in Boise again, I think we’ll see more of the same, hopefully another high-scoring one too. Boise would need to put on an absolute show to get in to the Cotton Bowl as the Group of 5 team, so there’s a good chance head coach Bryan Harsin isn’t going to be putting the scrubs in any time too early in the game. With the weather calling for 48 and rainy, that doesn’t look good for a Hawaii offense that gets most of its yardage through the air, and that blue field has to be a trippy fucking experience to play in when you don’t do it every week.
Pick: Boise St -13.5
ACC Championship
Dabo Is not a happy man. He feels Clemson doesn’t get any respect, and in some ways he’s right. Being ranked #5 in the initial CFBP rankings had to hurt, but this team has responded. In their last seven games, they’ve put up at least 38 points. They’ve scored 50 points four times in that stretch. Trevor Lawrence is looking like the prospect he was supposed to be, and Travis Etienne is one of the best running backs in the land. Virginia comes in after being their rivals, Virginia Tech, for the first time in 15 years. Virginia can score points, at least against shitty teams. I don’t think they’re going to score against a Clemson defense giving up 10 points a game. The Tigers will make one final statement as they cruise in to the playoffs.
Pick: Clemson -28.5
Big Ten Championship
As I write this I don’t know what Phil’s picks are. If he takes anything other than Bucky +16 in this game I will heavily consider ending our semi-professional relationship. Wisconsin needs to keep this thing close to go to the Grandaddy of them all, the Rose Bowl. JT got shut down in the first matchup, our defense got torched, it was ugly. Has anything changed since that fateful game? Not really. Do I think we’re going to make adjustments to give us a shot to at least cover the spread? Damn it I believe so.
Pick: Badgers +16
Jake’s final picks:
Utah -7
Baylor +9
App State -6.5
CMU -6.5
UAB +8.5
Memphis -9
Georgia +7
Boise St -13.5
Clemson -28.5
Wisconsin +16
Phil’s picks:
PAC 12: Oregon (+7) I really like Oregon, and I like them a hell of a lot better with the points. One of their losses came on opening weekend against a good Auburn team, and the other; well, I’m counting it as a fluke on the road against Arizona State. I think Justin Herbert will perform well in this one as the Ducks look bring the PAC 12 trophy back to Eugene. Utah has the motivation of the college football playoff within reach, but I’ll stick with the points. I think -7 is a bit much even for the no. 5 team in the country. Quack Quack.
MAC: Miami (+6.5) The Mid-American Conference has a special place in my heart. I went to school at Kent State freshman year and although that was a huge mistake, I still have an interest in the conference. I don’t know much about these two teams other than the Maction we’ve had the pleasure of witnessing the past month, but I still like Miami (OH), mostly for the points. I’ve looked at common opponents and it’s pretty messy with neither team dominating. I’ll take the points.
Sun Belt: Appalachian State (-6.5) I have no clue about this Louisiana Lafayette team, but everyone knows about App State. They’re no. 21 in the country and they’re playing at home. Since switching to the FBS this team hasn’t slowed down, and I don’t see them being slowed down with a conference championship on the line in good ole Boone, North Carolina. Hammer the favorites.
Big 12: Oklahoma (-9) Another game with CFP implications. I hate Oklahoma in this one, and I hate the -9 even more, but I’m riding with Jalen Hurts. He doesn’t lose these big games, and this is one of the biggest in his storied college career. And frankly, I’m just not sure Baylor is ready to take the throne in the Big 12. Oklahoma could just as easily get blown out in this game, but I’m going (OK) Boomer Sooner.
Conference USA: UAB (+8.5) Fuck if I know, god damn. This may as well be me picking from a hat. I’m taking the points with UAB for two reasons. 1) I fucking hate Lane Kiffin. No real reason to but I think the dude’s a prick. And 2) UAB’s program was like DEAD a couple years ago. Am I dreaming or did that actually happen? Either way I’ll take the points and I’ll take a Dragon over an Owl.
American: Memphis (-9.5) This spread is tough. Memphis just beat Cinci last week by 10 and that’s just about where the spread is this week. I really want to take Cincinnati but the game is being played in Memphis. Memphis makes too much sense here. I’m going against my gut and I’m picking the Tigers.
Mountain West: Boise State (-14) The killer B’s. Boise. Blue field. Better team. No further questions.
SEC: LSU (-7) As much as I hate the SEC, they’re conference championship games are so fun to watch. It’s like watching Duke v North Carolina every single year no matter the teams. This season has been the season LSU has been waiting for since hiring Coach O and I can’t find a reason why that isn’t the case come Saturday. LSU is too good, Joe “Burreaux” is too good. I fucking love Coach O. I think LSU sends a statement to the playoff committee for that no. 1 seed. Jake Fromm doesn’t produce wins in the biggest games and that doesn’t change either. It’s playoff or bust for Georgia and I don’t think they get it done. Geaux Tigers
ACC: Virginia (+28.5) 28.5 points is a lot. A lot A lot. And that’s making this pick tough. As I’m typing this I’m still not sure who I’m taking. Dabo is gonna have his team ready to play, and that scares me. But UVA has shown some resilience this season. I’m gonna take the points but I think it’s close to that 28.5. Something like 35-10 Clemson.
Big Ten: Ohio State (+16) Finally we reach the last game, and hopefully I’m up a bunch of units after the early ones. This game has trap written all over it for me. I love betting the Badgers because I usually know exactly what’s gonna happen, but it’s not the case this weekend. The big question is obviously Chase Young. How limited can Wisconsin keep that defensive line from Ohio. The line was at 17 early in the week and has since dropped a point to 16. I was confident that the +17 would hit for the Badgers but I don’t like that the spread is getting smaller. This could be a complete blowout from beginning to end and Wisconsin bettors would get fucked. My gut says Ohio, but my heart says the Badgers can keep it respectable. As much as I hate to say it, I’m going with the Buckeyes. They limit the run game and stifle Cephus and Co. in the passing game. Sadly, Buckeyes win by 20.
Phil’s Final Picks:
Oregon +7
Oklahoma -9
App State -6.5
Miami (OH) +6.5
UAB +8.5
Memphis -9
LSU -7
Boise State -13.5
Virginia +28.5
Ohio State -16
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